Tue, Oct 15, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 25 | 011 | 02 | 1 | 227 |
| DAL | 010 | 215 | 012 | 01 | 3 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:24SJSTyler ToffoliUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 12:03DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Logan Stankoven · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 15:12SJSTy DellandreaAssists: Nico Sturm · Snap, 0.33 xG2–1
- P2 17:12DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston · Slap, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. SJS Will Smith stopped
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. SJS Mikael Granlund scored
- 5. DAL Wyatt Johnston scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:30SJSBarclay Goodrow: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:13SJSJan Rutta: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:52DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:16DALColin Blackwell: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:24DALMatt Duchene: Holding2 min
- OT 4:16SJSKlim Kostin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Wennberg – Kunin8:49
xG 0.87–0.50 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Dellandrea – Sturm8:26
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Granlund – Eklund10:06
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Granlund – Kunin – Eklund2:01
xG 0.10–0.43 (18%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Walman13:33
xG 0.73–0.63 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Benning – Thrun8:20
xG 0.68–0.75 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Rutta – Thrun3:29
xG 0.01–0.17 (3%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Duchene – Marchment10:37
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston10:19
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck7:32
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Bourque – Stankoven9:29
xG 0.41–0.72 (36%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lundkvist13:07
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley15:12
xG 1.27–0.81 (61%)attempts 24–9goals 1–2
- Lyubushkin – Harley2:38
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).