Tue, Oct 15, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 012 | 010 | 132 |
| CGY | 19 | 112 | 16 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Justin Kirkland, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 16:11CHINick FolignoAssists: Seth Jones, Alec Martinez · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 13:32CGYAndrei KuzmenkoPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor Zary · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:21CGYMatt CoronatoENAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:01CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:40CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:56CHIConnor Bedard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:32CHINick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:42CGYBrayden Pachal: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Teravainen – Bedard13:01
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Anderson – Mikheyev8:36
xG 0.04–0.01 (88%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Kurashev12:16
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Maroon – Smith – Athanasiou7:26
xG 0.20–0.73 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Jones12:30
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Brodie – Vlasic11:07
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic3:09
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKirkland – Lomberg – Coronato8:22
xG 0.77–0.29 (73%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Mantha – Pospisil10:44
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary10:19
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Kuzmenko – Honzek9:08
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov16:21
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Andersson – Bahl16:26
xG 0.80–0.67 (54%)attempts 16–28goals 1–0
- Bean – Pachal11:11
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).