Wed, Oct 16, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 39 | 010 | 214 | 00 | 533 |
| PIT | 113 | 211 | 218 | 11 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:08BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 11:01PITBryan RustPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 11:33BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Bowen Byram, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 9:12PITDrew O'ConnorSHAssists: Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–2
- P2 15:20PITJesse PuljujarviAssists: Lars Eller, Drew O'Connor · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 3:26PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 10:16BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 10:56BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Bowen Byram, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 19:14PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.17 xG5–5
- OT 1:38PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:00BUFRyan McLeod: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:30PITMarcus Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:18BUFJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:37PITMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:12BUFJJ Peterka: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:53BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
- P3 1:23BUFZach Benson: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:43BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka13:13
xG 1.29–0.78 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 3–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson8:03
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs7:20
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod11:36
xG 0.35–1.19 (22%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin15:36
xG 1.27–0.95 (57%)attempts 22–19goals 3–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin2:05
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Clifton – Samuelsson11:29
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Acciari – Glass7:33
xG 0.46–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting13:26
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Eller – Puljujarvi – O'Connor10:00
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Crosby – Rust – Beauvillier12:29
xG 0.96–1.11 (46%)attempts 18–21goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson15:46
xG 1.10–0.81 (58%)attempts 15–19goals 1–3
- Graves – St. Ivany10:36
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk14:05
xG 0.93–0.69 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).