Wed, Oct 16, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Boston Bruins 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 210 | 212 | 14 | 526 |
| COL | 15 | 16 | 114 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:46BOSCole KoepkeAssists: Andrew Peeke, Nikita Zadorov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:07COLRoss ColtonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:09BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: Mason Lohrei · Snap, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 9:09BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P2 9:22BOSHampus LindholmGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P2 11:15COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 4:52COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 17:59BOSJohn BeecherENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:32COLParker Kelly: Interference2 min
- P1 14:48BOSRiley Tufte: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:40COLOliver Kylington: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:32COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:16COLMatthew Stienburg: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:42COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:29BOSRiley Tufte: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Tufte – Jones – Poitras5:40
xG 0.03–0.01 (74%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher10:21
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Zacha13:11
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Frederic10:24
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Peeke7:28
xG 0.89–0.11 (89%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Peeke2:57
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei8:43
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Colton6:35
xG 0.73–0.06 (93%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Kovalenko – O'Connor4:06
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wood – MacKinnon – O'Connor3:50
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Colton – Kovalenko2:33
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Malinski8:14
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Manson – Kylington3:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kylington – Makar10:36
xG 0.80–0.79 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).