Wed, Oct 16, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Utah Hockey Club 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 210 | 08 | 212 | 00 | 430 |
| ANA | 111 | 210 | 112 | 11 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40ANATroy TerryAssists: Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:54UTAJack McBainAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Michael Kesselring · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 13:25UTABarrett HaytonPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Guenther · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 8:06ANARobby FabbriAssists: Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 16:52ANAPavel MintyukovAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 5:21UTAMichael KesselringAssists: Jack McBain, Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 10:50UTAClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 14:55ANAPavel MintyukovAssists: Brock McGinn, Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 0:54ANALeo CarlssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:36UTALawson Crouse: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:45ANACutter Gauthier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:44UTANick Schmaltz: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:59UTAJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12UTAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:04UTARobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:41ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41UTAJosh Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41UTAJosh Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Carcone – Maccelli8:38
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley8:16
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton13:41
xG 0.72–0.73 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Doan8:35
xG 0.30–0.68 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Kolyachonok6:11
xG 0.64–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Sergachev – Välimäki2:16
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Kesselring13:28
xG 0.49–0.35 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gauthier – Carlsson7:55
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McGinn – Lundeström – Leason7:47
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – McGinn – Carlsson3:27
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry9:44
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Fowler3:15
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Fowler – Zellweger2:29
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gudas – Zellweger10:09
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).