Thu, Oct 17, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Seattle Kraken 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 05 | 29 | 425 |
| SEA | 19 | 415 | 15 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Ryan Poehling, Garnet Hathaway · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 18:15SEABrandon MontourAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Ryker Evans · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 18:58PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 3:06SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Vince Dunn · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 14:57SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Shane Wright · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 17:44SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jared McCann, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P2 17:52SEAShane WrightGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 10:19PHICam YorkAssists: Scott Laughton, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 12:32PHIJamie DrysdalePPAssists: Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 14:52SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:27PHIMorgan Frost: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:35SEAAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:04SEAShane Wright: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:27PHIJoel Farabee: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:09PHIGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:55SEABrandon Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 11:55PHICam York: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:57PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:12PHIGarnet Hathaway: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:31SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:24SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:24SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:24PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:24PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:24SEAYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Hathaway – Poehling5:17
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Couturier – Brink – Foerster2:52
xG 0.00–0.03 (1%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Konecny – Farabee – Luchanko4:10
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Michkov4:54
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- York – Drysdale2:06
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Johnson – Drysdale7:07
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Zamula5:39
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tanev – Kartye6:55
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – Tolvanen – Beniers7:13
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand6:51
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Eberle – McCann – Wright4:37
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Evans11:40
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Oleksiak – Montour10:22
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak3:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).