Fri, Oct 18, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 218 | 111 | 438 |
| PIT | 14 | 07 | 015 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Lars Eller, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:24CARJackson BlakeAssists: Eric Robinson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 6:52CARMartin NecasPPGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:13CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 11:00CARJack RoslovicAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:20CARSean Walker: Holding2 min
- P2 6:13PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:23CARJackson Blake: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:23PITDrew O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:45CARWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:04PITMichael Bunting: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:09CAREric Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:35CARSean Walker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:00CARJackson Blake: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Carrier9:57
xG 0.90–0.10 (90%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:10
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Necas – Kotkaniemi9:51
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Robinson – Drury – Blake6:25
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker10:29
xG 1.08–0.08 (93%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin13:41
xG 1.17–0.38 (76%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield15:44
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Rakell – O'Connor6:45
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Puljujarvi – O'Connor2:39
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Hayes – Acciari – Glass4:35
xG 0.18–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting4:20
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – St. Ivany2:22
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Graves – St. Ivany11:43
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson14:19
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).