Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 0, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 014 | 010 | 033 |
| NSH | 114 | 117 | 211 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:16NSHRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 16:55NSHTommy NovakAssists: Luke Evangelista, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 12:47NSHGustav NyquistAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 13:56NSHLuke EvangelistaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:13BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:22NSHRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min
- P1 3:15NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:15BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:44NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:25BOSMax Jones: Interference2 min
- P1 17:05BOSMax Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:00BOSNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:53BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:42NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:39NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Geekie – Poitras5:56
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher6:37
xG 0.06–0.07 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Pastrnak7:03
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Coyle – Frederic – Jones5:23
xG 0.08–0.46 (15%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy11:58
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Peeke – Lohrei11:15
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Carlo11:40
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:10
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista6:56
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Sissons7:23
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux7:56
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei10:02
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Carrier12:17
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Gaizo9:43
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).