Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 113 | 211 | 02 | 2 | 338 |
| CGY | 112 | 06 | 27 | 00 | 3 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Justin Kirkland, Ryan Lomberg · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 6:31PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 2:32PITRickard RakellAssists: Kevin Hayes, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 7:46CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Daniil Miromanov, Blake Coleman · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 13:40PITNoel AcciariAssists: Cody Glass, Marcus Pettersson · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:17CGYNazem KadriAssists: Blake Coleman, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Andrei Kuzmenko stopped
- 2. PIT Rickard Rakell scored
- 3. CGY Anthony Mantha scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. CGY Rasmus Andersson scored
- 6. PIT Bryan Rust scored
- 7. CGY Connor Zary stopped
- 8. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 9. CGY Nazem Kadri stopped
- 10. PIT Lars Eller stopped
- 11. CGY Justin Kirkland scored
- 12. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:46PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:07CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:48PITMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:34PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:59CGYMartin Pospisil: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:21PITJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:54CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Holding2 min
- P3 0:29CGYMikael Backlund: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pospisil won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Acciari – Glass6:16
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting9:27
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Eller – Beauvillier – Puljujarvi6:44
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor10:58
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson11:51
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk13:25
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson2:25
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Zary11:49
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka3:35
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Mantha – Pospisil4:43
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko2:14
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Bahl12:56
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Bean – Pachal12:11
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov13:55
xG 0.43–0.75 (37%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).