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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 23, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Washington Capitals 6

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.

WSH winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI0321719329
WSH1638211625

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:50WSHTaylor RaddyshAssists: Dylan McIlrath, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:49WSHNic DowdAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:04WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan McIlrath · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
  4. P2 7:16WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–4
  5. P2 12:04PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P2 16:16PHIOwen TippettAssists: Egor Zamula, Tyson Foerster · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–4
  7. P3 6:36PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Owen Tippett, Jamie Drysdale · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
  8. P3 17:48WSHPierre-Luc DuboisENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
  9. P3 18:50WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.69 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 6:20WSHDylan McIlrath: High sticking2 min
  2. P2 0:27WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
  3. P2 10:48WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min · PPG
  4. P2 13:38PHITyson Foerster: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
  5. P3 0:25PHIMatvei Michkov: Interference2 min
  6. P3 4:37PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 4:37WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 6:17WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 15:03PHIMorgan Frost: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Cates
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIWSH
29Shots on goal25
2.7Expected goals4.2
57Shot attempts53
42Faceoffs won26
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes10
32Hits16
11Blocked shots20
18Giveaways17
3Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestCouturier – Konecny – Michkov3:18

    xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Laughton – Frost – Michkov2:11

    xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  3. Laughton – Konecny – Frost7:24

    xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2

  4. Deslauriers – Hathaway – Cates5:33

    xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSanheim – York16:18

    xG 1.09–0.19 (85%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0

  2. Seeler – Drysdale6:19

    xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  3. Seeler – Ristolainen3:52

    xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

Washington Capitals

Forward lines

  1. bestOvechkin – Strome – Protas7:50

    xG 0.55–0.04 (93%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0

  2. Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime9:29

    xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0

  3. Vrana – Mangiapane – Lapierre7:22

    xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

  4. Wilson – Dubois – McMichael10:05

    xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCarlson – Sandin2:45

    xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0

  2. Carlson – Fehérváry3:48

    xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  3. McIlrath – Fehérváry7:28

    xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 4.2 xGPHI 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #159 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.96 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +12 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.

WSH winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).