Thu, Oct 24, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 218 | 111 | 443 |
| CGY | 07 | 114 | 111 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:29CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:41CARJack RoslovicAssists: Brent Burns, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 1:59CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 13:01CGYJake BeanAssists: Connor Zary, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 13:05CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Justin Kirkland, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 18:43CAREric RobinsonENAssists: Pyotr Kochetkov · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:17CGYRyan Lomberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:55CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:55CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:10CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:18CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:14CGYKevin Rooney: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:14CARSean Walker: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:38CARJalen Chatfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kirkland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Drury – Blake6:53
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov10:27
xG 0.92–0.62 (60%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis11:53
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi10:32
xG 0.45–0.39 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin15:48
xG 1.44–0.38 (79%)attempts 25–12goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker12:47
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Orlov – Chatfield17:08
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko12:38
xG 0.71–0.65 (52%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Mantha – Kirkland7:16
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Kirkland – Coronato4:23
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary11:18
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bean – Pachal11:54
xG 0.27–0.54 (34%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Andersson – Bahl15:36
xG 0.60–0.93 (39%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
- Weegar – Miromanov18:12
xG 0.18–0.91 (17%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).