Thu, Oct 24, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Winnipeg Jets 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 215 | 113 | 11 | 436 |
| SEA | 112 | 010 | 29 | 01 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:27SEAMatty BeniersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:56WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 15:05WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 4:21WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Cole Perfetti, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 11:01SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jared McCann, Matty Beniers · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 16:38SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Brandon Montour, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:26WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:14WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P2 15:19WPGAdam Lowry: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:18SEATye Kartye: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti12:12
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:00
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari7:19
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi15:00
xG 0.45–0.68 (39%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Samberg – Pionk15:31
xG 0.74–0.80 (48%)attempts 18–20goals 2–3
- Miller – Stanley12:15
xG 0.26–0.33 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey19:24
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers13:46
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 21–14goals 3–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tanev7:18
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wright2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Burakovsky2:45
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour13:48
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Borgen – Mahura8:10
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen3:44
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).