Sat, Oct 26, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 211 | 16 | 01 | 323 |
| BOS | 010 | 312 | 010 | 12 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:35TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:57BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:44TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Mitch Marner, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 12:38BOSJustin BrazeauAssists: Trent Frederic, Matthew Poitras · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 13:14BOSMark KastelicAssists: John Beecher, Cole Koepke · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:43TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:26BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.33 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:40TORRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P1 10:34BOSMorgan Geekie: Interference2 min
- P1 12:03BOSJohn Beecher: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:31TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:11TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:11BOSCharlie Coyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:24TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:47BOSTrent Frederic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:58TORNick Robertson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Tavares – Robertson3:35
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies10:44
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Kampf5:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Domi – Nylander – McMann4:44
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe10:44
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Tanev – Rielly2:00
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tanev – Benoit2:25
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKastelic – Koepke – Beecher7:38
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Brazeau2:08
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Poitras2:19
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Geekie4:05
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Peeke11:43
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy3:58
xG 0.01–0.06 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo9:13
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).