Sat, Oct 26, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 214 | 011 | 231 |
| MTL | 18 | 211 | 27 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:34MTLJake EvansAssists: Joel Armia, David Savard · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:12MTLKirby DachAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 1:33STLColton ParaykoAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 4:02STLJake NeighboursAssists: Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 14:04MTLAlex NewhookPPGWGAssists: Kirby Dach, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 5:19MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 16:49MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:23MTLMichael Pezzetta: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:12STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:07STLRadek Faksa: Interference2 min
- P2 13:58STLScott Perunovich: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:28MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding2 min
- P3 12:42MTLMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holloway won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Holloway – Bolduc8:08
xG 0.87–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Faksa – Sundqvist – Toropchenko8:21
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Texier10:49
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours9:57
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg14:59
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- Joseph – Perunovich9:00
xG 0.32–0.32 (49%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Parayko18:04
xG 0.91–1.51 (38%)attempts 16–29goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Pezzetta – Heineman5:56
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans7:30
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield11:43
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Armia – Newhook – Kapanen6:43
xG 0.28–0.75 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Hutson12:44
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Struble – Mailloux2:48
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Struble – Xhekaj6:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).