Sat, Oct 26, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Florida Panthers 6, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 27 | 313 | 629 |
| NYI | 39 | 07 | 012 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32NYIDennis CholowskiAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 6:01NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Ryan Pulock, Maxim Tsyplakov · Poke, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 11:41NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Kyle Palmieri · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 13:27FLASam ReinhartAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 6:38FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Poke, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 18:16FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Spencer Knight · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 6:19FLASam BennettGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Niko Mikkola · Deflected, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 9:49FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 17:43FLAGustav ForslingENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:56NYISimon Holmstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:49FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:39FLASam Bennett: Holding2 min
- P3 9:02NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:49FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:26
xG 1.37–1.09 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 2–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell13:07
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Greer – Rodrigues – Boqvist10:14
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola12:55
xG 1.20–0.86 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Boqvist7:00
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:52
xG 0.76–0.97 (44%)attempts 17–16goals 1–3
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov12:10
xG 1.15–0.35 (77%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Cizikas – Lee – Pageau9:30
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Engvall – MacLean8:24
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Holmstrom10:54
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock18:58
xG 1.18–0.93 (56%)attempts 20–24goals 1–1
- Reilly – Dobson14:34
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Cholowski10:04
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).