Sat, Oct 26, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 06 | 210 | 224 |
| DAL | 115 | 110 | 25 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 14:42DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley · Bat, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 8:50DALMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Logan Stankoven, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 9:34CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Craig Smith, Patrick Maroon · Poke, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 14:15CHIConnor BedardAssists: Patrick Maroon, Nolan Allan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:42DALMatt DucheneENAssists: Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.82 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:59CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:24DALMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P1 6:33CHIPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 0:00DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:38DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 6:51CHISeth Jones: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Maroon – Smith – Donato8:06
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Foligno – Dickinson – Mikheyev7:28
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Kurashev9:02
xG 0.27–0.74 (27%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Reichel – Bedard6:33
xG 0.01–0.61 (1%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Allan6:35
xG 0.51–0.20 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Murphy – Vlasic7:12
xG 0.28–0.23 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Jones – Vlasic4:41
xG 0.00–0.02 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment11:46
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston9:24
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Stankoven9:20
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bourque7:32
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley4:15
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin7:42
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist2:05
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).