Tue, Oct 29, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 1, Ottawa Senators 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 06 | 113 | 127 |
| OTT | 316 | 310 | 29 | 835 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:44OTTNoah GregorGWGAssists: Michael Amadio, Zack Ostapchuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 15:04OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 8:55OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 11:08OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 11:50OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.14 xG0–6
- P3 7:31OTTTim StützleAssists: Thomas Chabot, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.09 xG0–7
- P3 9:04STLDylan HollowayPPAssists: Alexandre Texier, Philip Broberg · Slap, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 15:27OTTAdam GaudetteUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG1–8
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:21OTTTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:23STLDylan Holloway: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25STLMatthew Kessel: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:22OTTNoah Gregor: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:31OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31STLMatthew Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31STLPhilip Broberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:50STLBrandon Saad: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:23OTTNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Texier8:00
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Schenn – Texier – Toropchenko2:22
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Holloway – Neighbours2:27
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Faksa – Sundqvist – Toropchenko5:17
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Broberg17:40
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Suter – Parayko17:16
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 14–24goals 0–2
- Joseph – Kessel9:10
xG 0.05–0.51 (8%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Greig – Stützle10:42
xG 0.87–0.20 (81%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Amadio – Gregor – Ostapchuk9:42
xG 0.54–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen9:47
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Giroux – Norris – Batherson9:38
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot18:34
xG 1.08–0.36 (75%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:34
xG 0.85–0.23 (79%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven16:31
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).