Wed, Oct 30, 2024·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Calgary Flames 1, Utah Hockey Club 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 110 | 08 | 131 |
| UTA | 28 | 28 | 112 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41UTAAlexander KerfootAssists: Michael Kesselring, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:58UTABarrett HaytonGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 3:53CGYAnthony ManthaAssists: Justin Kirkland, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 4:10UTAMaveric LamoureuxAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Jack McBain · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 16:32UTAMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 5:13UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:37UTAMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min
- P1 16:01UTADylan Guenther: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:59CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:59UTAMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:37CGYAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:17CGYBlake Coleman: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:21UTADylan Guenther: Holding2 min
- P3 4:53CGYNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:39CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko9:42
xG 0.60–0.12 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary9:02
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Mantha – Kirkland – Lomberg6:41
xG 0.02–0.29 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Honzek7:07
xG 0.05–0.52 (9%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Pachal16:01
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl14:02
xG 0.63–0.75 (46%)attempts 18–18goals 0–0
- Barrie – Bean11:33
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Hayton – Maccelli9:04
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Kerfoot – Crouse5:08
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Keller – Guenther – Cooley7:28
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – McBain3:35
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Välimäki3:53
xG 0.39–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Kesselring9:36
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Lamoureux2:42
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).