Thu, Oct 31, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Seattle Kraken 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 011 | 09 | 15 | 125 |
| TOR | 114 | 26 | 110 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:55TORMatthew KniesAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 1:39TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 9:24TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 16:32SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Ryker Evans, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:17TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:31TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:53SEAMatty Beniers: Holding2 min
- P2 4:02TORMatthew Knies: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:47TORWilliam Nylander: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 8:36SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wright4:51
xG 0.39–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright4:02
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Burakovsky3:28
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Kartye8:40
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:52
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Mahura – Fleury9:01
xG 0.17–0.30 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Larsson – Evans15:54
xG 0.18–0.79 (19%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Tavares – Nylander10:42
xG 0.82–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies11:35
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Holmberg3:59
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann8:16
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe14:44
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly13:31
xG 0.66–0.38 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Timmins – Benoit10:59
xG 0.04–0.48 (8%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).