Thu, Oct 31, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 36 | 03 | 315 |
| WSH | 07 | 313 | 314 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:21WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:52MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 10:31MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Lane Hutson, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:45WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 12:39WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 18:00MTLNick SuzukiAssists: David Savard, Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 4:21WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 4:57WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 12:27WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:06MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P1 11:07WSHAliaksei Protas: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00WSHConnor McMichael: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:53MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:55WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:09WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:19MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:24WSHBrandon Duhaime: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:49WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:48MTLMike Matheson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:50MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:50WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:50MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDach – Newhook – Slafkovský7:59
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Armia – Dvorak – Kapanen3:43
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans6:13
xG 0.09–0.71 (12%)attempts 2–9goals 0–2
- Suzuki – Caufield – Heineman9:20
xG 0.13–0.99 (12%)attempts 6–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Struble – Barron7:04
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Matheson – Guhle14:12
xG 0.37–0.76 (33%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
- Savard – Hutson12:28
xG 0.21–1.38 (13%)attempts 4–22goals 2–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Raddysh – Duhaime6:49
xG 1.16–0.09 (93%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas7:10
xG 0.85–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 2–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael9:14
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Sgarbossa – Vrana – Mangiapane6:15
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry11:51
xG 1.80–0.14 (93%)attempts 26–5goals 2–0
- McIlrath – Alexeyev4:54
xG 0.46–0.04 (93%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev6:54
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).