Fri, Nov 1, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 212 | 219 | 213 | 644 |
| CBJ | 18 | 18 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Colin Miller · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:02CBJSean KuralyAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 15:14WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 2:20WPGMason AppletonGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 16:30CBJSean MonahanPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 18:51WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 11:39WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 14:54WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.32 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:54CBJDmitri Voronkov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:22WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:12WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:22CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danforth won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:02
xG 1.38–0.24 (85%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari8:28
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:22
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti12:06
xG 0.99–0.59 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:56
xG 1.35–0.40 (77%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Samberg – Pionk16:38
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Miller – Stanley12:41
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese10:58
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Monahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov11:49
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Pyyhtia – Sillinger – Fantilli12:08
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Voronkov10:33
xG 0.18–1.07 (14%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Provorov – Harris4:01
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Severson – Werenski4:19
xG 0.02–0.19 (7%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Harris7:56
xG 0.11–0.55 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).