Fri, Nov 1, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 115 | 07 | 28 | 330 |
| MIN | 06 | 17 | 49 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:15TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 0:47MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:41MINBrock FaberAssists: Jake Middleton, Jakub Lauko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 6:23TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 14:37MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marco Rossi, Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 16:57MINMatt BoldyENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
- P3 17:34TBLNick PaulAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 19:31MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:37MINJakub Lauko: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:37TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:11MINMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P1 18:21MINMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 4:26TBLMichael Eyssimont: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:13TBLConor Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:49MINKirill Kaprizov: Holding2 min
- P3 4:31MINJared Spurgeon: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point11:47
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie8:23
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Glendening – Girgensons6:26
xG 0.01–0.01 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee6:42
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser12:17
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak14:20
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
- Perbix – Lilleberg11:26
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:07
xG 0.46–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:37
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Trenin – Lauko – Khusnutdinov3:17
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Hartman – Lauko – Khusnutdinov2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber14:40
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin13:46
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Brodin – Chisholm2:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).