Sat, Nov 2, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 220 | 011 | 236 |
| WSH | 58 | 19 | 15 | 722 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 1:42WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 7:28WSHAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Jakub Vrana, Hendrix Lapierre · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 14:34WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, Aliaksei Protas · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P1 14:58WSHNic DowdAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Brandon Duhaime · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–5
- P2 0:49CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P2 4:51WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Tom Wilson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.02 xG1–6
- P2 14:36CBJKevin LabancAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Sean Monahan · Poke, 0.46 xG2–6
- P3 18:34WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Taylor Raddysh · Snap, 0.17 xG2–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:01WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:46WSHConnor McMichael: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:31CBJSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:58WSHBrandon Duhaime: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Kuraly – Labanc – Aston-Reese12:52
xG 0.86–0.94 (48%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Olivier – Danforth – Pyyhtia10:28
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Voronkov – Chinakhov – Fantilli7:41
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov4:17
xG 0.00–0.14 (1%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Jiricek13:50
xG 1.61–0.91 (64%)attempts 23–13goals 1–3
- Severson – Christiansen13:24
xG 0.93–0.59 (61%)attempts 25–7goals 1–2
- Werenski – Provorov19:40
xG 0.49–1.14 (30%)attempts 21–17goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestVrana – Mangiapane – Lapierre9:10
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas10:24
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime9:53
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael12:31
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 13–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev13:40
xG 1.13–0.13 (89%)attempts 11–13goals 3–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:34
xG 0.92–0.47 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- McIlrath – Alexeyev2:22
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).