Sat, Nov 2, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 010 | 111 | 126 |
| PIT | 15 | 116 | 13 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 18:40PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 5:32MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Emil Heineman, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 19:15PITBlake LizotteENAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:39MTLArber Xhekaj: Holding2 min
- P2 5:38PITValtteri Puustinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:19PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:46MTLDavid Savard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00PITNoel Acciari: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLJayden Struble: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00PITRyan Graves: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield5:16
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield5:54
xG 0.03–0.03 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Heineman – Kapanen6:49
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Evans9:16
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Xhekaj10:10
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Matheson – Guhle15:58
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Savard – Hutson15:59
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Acciari – O'Connor9:02
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Bunting – Glass – Puustinen2:59
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Glass2:41
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Puustinen – O'Connor3:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – St. Ivany12:15
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson16:02
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk12:57
xG 0.29–0.69 (29%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).