Sat, Nov 2, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 08 | 117 | 237 |
| STL | 04 | 314 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25TORMitch MarnerAssists: Conor Timmins · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:29STLColton ParaykoAssists: Nathan Walker, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 8:08STLJordan KyrouUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:33STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Dylan Holloway · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 13:52TORSteven LorentzAssists: David Kampf, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 19:21STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.80 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:36STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:36TORJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:50STLRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:22TORMitch Marner: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:33TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:11STLJake Neighbours: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:11TORJake McCabe: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:58TORChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:03STLNathan Walker: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:21TORAuston Matthews: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:50STLJake Neighbours: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:50TORPontus Holmberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:50STLPavel Buchnevich: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:20STLPierre-Olivier Joseph: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Tavares – Nylander10:30
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:49
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Domi – Holmberg – McMann7:44
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Kampf5:22
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Timmins2:42
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Tanev – McCabe9:14
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly10:57
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Walker – Texier4:40
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Saad – Buchnevich – Neighbours8:15
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway9:45
xG 0.43–0.70 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Faksa – Toropchenko – Bolduc6:44
xG 0.04–0.31 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Kessel7:48
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Joseph3:19
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Faulk2:27
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).