Tue, Nov 5, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 113 | 112 | 11 | 335 |
| MTL | 015 | 16 | 13 | 00 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:20CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Nazem Kadri, Daniil Miromanov · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 16:23MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Joel Armia, Oliver Kapanen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 5:56MTLJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Jake Evans · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 17:14CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 0:07CGYMatt CoronatoGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:39CGYRyan Lomberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:59CGYDaniil Miromanov: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:27CGYJustin Kirkland: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:33MTLLane Hutson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Sharangovich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Mantha – Sharangovich3:56
xG 0.60–0.26 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Zary – Kuzmenko12:51
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato12:40
xG 0.82–0.69 (54%)attempts 26–14goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Pospisil – Sharangovich8:21
xG 0.16–0.11 (61%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov18:44
xG 1.32–0.88 (60%)attempts 30–16goals 2–0
- Barrie – Pachal9:21
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl17:40
xG 0.45–1.11 (29%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield15:04
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
- Evans – Newhook – Slafkovský11:43
xG 1.22–0.90 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:10
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Dvorak – Heineman2:21
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle18:28
xG 1.13–0.79 (59%)attempts 23–25goals 0–1
- Struble – Xhekaj9:58
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Savard – Hutson14:00
xG 0.78–1.03 (43%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).