Tue, Nov 5, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 16 | 18 | 223 |
| STL | 03 | 212 | 18 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:39TBLNick PerbixAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 7:57STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Matthew Kessel, Zachary Bolduc · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 18:25STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 8:51STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 11:43TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:10TBLEmil Lilleberg: Holding2 min
- P1 4:41STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:02STLJustin Faulk: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:24STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Buchnevich won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel12:25
xG 1.03–0.65 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Cirelli2:49
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont7:41
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Paul – Chaffee7:49
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak17:08
xG 0.91–0.41 (69%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg9:41
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 1–3
- McDonagh – Perbix3:07
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Walker – Toropchenko6:25
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Saad – Buchnevich – Neighbours3:17
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway3:06
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Faksa – Toropchenko – Bolduc2:12
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Parayko17:17
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Faulk – Joseph19:45
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Perunovich – Kessel7:31
xG 0.44–0.76 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).