Wed, Nov 6, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Nashville Predators 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 113 | 011 | 235 |
| WSH | 118 | 114 | 14 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12NSHJuuso ParssinenAssists: Luke Evangelista, Philip Tomasino · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:26WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Matt Roy, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 15:03WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 15:34NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:25WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:44NSHMarc Del Gaizo: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:11WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:42NSHJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:06NSHJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P2 19:22WSHMatt Roy: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:00NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 12:13NSHLuke Evangelista: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Smith – L'Heureux5:35
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:09
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Tomasino – Parssinen – Evangelista10:35
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Marchessault – McCarron3:00
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Del Gaizo13:13
xG 0.68–0.83 (45%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Lauzon – Carrier10:47
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Josi – Skjei14:38
xG 0.62–1.75 (26%)attempts 25–18goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Protas6:26
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Milano – Mangiapane – Lapierre7:04
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael8:45
xG 0.97–0.69 (59%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime13:41
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin11:07
xG 1.03–0.57 (64%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry8:52
xG 0.77–0.34 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin3:20
xG 0.37–0.04 (90%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).