Thu, Nov 7, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 210 | 28 | 531 |
| SJS | 05 | 113 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22MINZach BogosianAssists: Declan Chisholm, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:36SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Mikael Granlund, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 8:01MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi · Slap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 13:26MINMatt BoldyPPGWGAssists: Brock Faber, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 6:02MINJonas BrodinAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Kirill Kaprizov · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 16:08SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Mikael Granlund, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:25MINMatt BoldyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:02SJSCarl Grundstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:22SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:17MINBrock Faber: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:28SJSLuke Kunin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:31MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:28MINJared Spurgeon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:48
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi9:22
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau8:44
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Trenin – Lauko – Khusnutdinov6:27
xG 0.01–0.15 (6%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin12:42
xG 0.82–0.38 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Middleton – Faber14:54
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Chisholm14:01
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Granlund – Celebrini11:01
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Wennberg – Zetterlund – Dellandrea2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kunin – Dellandrea – Sturm2:22
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Dellandrea – Sturm4:09
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Thompson7:36
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Rutta – Thrun4:54
xG 0.25–0.32 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Liljegren – Thrun7:26
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).