Sat, Nov 9, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 15 | 112 | 03 | 0 | 226 |
| BUF | 27 | 06 | 04 | 02 | 1 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11BUFZach BensonAssists: Jacob Bryson, Owen Power · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:37BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 17:44CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 15:42CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. CGY Yegor Sharangovich stopped
- 3. BUF JJ Peterka scored
- 4. CGY Andrei Kuzmenko stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. CGY Justin Kirkland stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:42CGYMartin Pospisil: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:58BUFDennis Gilbert: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:25BUFDennis Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:34CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:44CGYJustin Kirkland: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44BUFDennis Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:40BUFPeyton Krebs: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Huberdeau – Kuzmenko4:49
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Coleman – Kirkland – Coronato3:30
xG 0.22–0.17 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Kadri – Sharangovich – Zary13:07
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Rooney5:02
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov17:01
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Bean – Pachal10:01
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl17:58
xG 0.43–1.11 (28%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs8:50
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka11:54
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson9:31
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod9:14
xG 0.30–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram20:04
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Byram – Power2:46
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power12:24
xG 0.41–0.40 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).