Sat, Nov 9, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 110 | 012 | 12 | 334 |
| BOS | 07 | 28 | 00 | 01 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 4:51BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:06BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Justin Brazeau, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 17:16OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Noah Gregor, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:21OTTBrady TkachukGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:26OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:27BOSElias Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:52BOSMatthew Poitras: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:26BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:15OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Tkachuk – Greig11:15
xG 0.85–0.15 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle12:55
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Amadio – Gregor – Ostapchuk7:03
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen6:05
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot16:27
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Sanderson – Zub16:22
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Kleven11:56
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Lindholm – Brazeau6:43
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Coyle – Koepke – Poitras5:07
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha3:17
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Frederic – Kastelic – Beecher6:06
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy14:56
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Wotherspoon – Lohrei10:20
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo13:35
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).