Sat, Nov 9, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 8, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 24 | 513 | 827 |
| STL | 19 | 011 | 05 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:07STLScott PerunovichAssists: Matthew Kessel, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:42WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 10:53WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 2:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 3:51WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Michael Sgarbossa, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 10:20WSHConnor McMichaelPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.31 xG6–1
- P3 15:27WSHMichael SgarbossaAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Martin Fehérváry · Tip-in, 0.12 xG7–1
- P3 16:45WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: John Carlson, Taylor Raddysh · Deflected, 0.17 xG8–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:17WSHMichael Sgarbossa: Interference2 min
- P1 16:59WSHJakob Chychrun: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:28WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:02STLRyan Suter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:37STLZachary Bolduc: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:37WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:03STLRyan Suter: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Holloway
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Raddysh – Duhaime10:08
xG 0.81–0.18 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael10:43
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Sgarbossa – Vrana – Mangiapane9:07
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–1goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas9:44
xG 0.20–0.87 (19%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin16:13
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry12:17
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun2:59
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou11:30
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:20
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Kapanen – Bolduc7:59
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Saad – Holloway – Neighbours10:17
xG 0.04–0.70 (5%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPerunovich – Kessel13:29
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Faulk – Joseph13:30
xG 0.61–0.80 (43%)attempts 17–14goals 0–3
- Suter – Parayko15:43
xG 0.33–0.79 (29%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).