Mon, Nov 11, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 7, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 310 | 35 | 723 |
| BUF | 16 | 25 | 27 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Christian Dvorak, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 4:42BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:26MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 5:45BUFDylan CozensAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 6:44BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Bowen Byram, Owen Power · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 19:13MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 19:35MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 1:58BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 3:51BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Owen Power · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 10:50MTLEmil HeinemanAssists: Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–5
- P3 12:58MTLCole CaufieldPPGWGAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.55 xG6–5
- P3 19:11MTLChristian DvorakENAssists: Josh Anderson, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.80 xG7–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:39MTLArber Xhekaj: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:09BUFJack Quinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:38BUFBowen Byram: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 7:44MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:44BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:35MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:56BUFBowen Byram: Interference2 min
- P2 15:24BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:43MTLJayden Struble: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:42MTLJosh Anderson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:15BUFRasmus Dahlin: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:58BUFJack Quinn: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Slafkovský9:36
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Armia – Heineman – Condotta5:36
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak6:32
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Evans – Caufield – Newhook6:47
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson2:26
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle2:37
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Benson4:48
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka4:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka4:39
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram10:38
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Byram – Power2:54
xG 0.15–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Clifton – Bryson2:29
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).