Mon, Nov 11, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 7, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 612 | 010 | 118 | 740 |
| PIT | 07 | 16 | 08 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:13DALLogan StankovenGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 10:16DALMason MarchmentAssists: Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.22 xG3–0
- P1 13:09DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Mason Marchment, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.07 xG4–0
- P1 14:37DALMiro HeiskanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–0
- P1 18:39DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–0
- P2 15:03PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Jack St. Ivany · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–1
- P3 15:10DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:11PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:52DALBrendan Smith: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:18PITNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:55PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:22PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hintz – Robertson10:27
xG 0.71–0.04 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston10:11
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bourque10:00
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:57
xG 0.56–1.17 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Harley12:18
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin2:30
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley2:03
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Lizotte – Puustinen9:13
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Malkin – Crosby – Rakell2:50
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Acciari – Puljujarvi8:43
xG 0.27–0.45 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rakell – O'Connor9:46
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Graves – St. Ivany12:47
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk3:26
xG 0.00–0.05 (3%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson3:33
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).