Thu, Nov 14, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Islanders 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 215 | 28 | 532 |
| VAN | 13 | 03 | 120 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40VANJonathan LekkerimäkiAssists: J.T. Miller, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:23NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Anders Lee, Oliver Wahlstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 0:14NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–1
- P2 2:10NYIPierre EngvallGWGAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Grant Hutton · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 11:42NYIAnders LeeAssists: Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 17:54NYINoah DobsonENAssists: Grant Hutton, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–1
- P3 18:34VANTyler MyersAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:41VANJonathan Lekkerimäki: Holding2 min
- P1 16:33VANCarson Soucy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:49VANTeddy Blueger: Holding2 min
- P2 14:03NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:03VANVincent Desharnais: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:03VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:26VANDakota Joshua: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:06NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom10:10
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov10:45
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Horvat9:21
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Wahlstrom – MacLean4:52
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pulock18:24
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 18–21goals 1–1
- Cholowski – Hutton10:36
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Dobson – George12:08
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Hoglander – Räty6:52
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Suter – Lekkerimäki9:41
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- DeBrusk – Garland – Pettersson10:41
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood6:57
xG 0.15–0.71 (17%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Brannstrom3:10
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes4:12
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Soucy – Hronek3:27
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).