Sat, Nov 16, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 09 | 110 | 12 | 331 |
| BOS | 27 | 05 | 06 | 00 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25STLRadek FaksaAssists: Scott Perunovich, Alexey Toropchenko · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 9:34BOSTrent FredericAssists: Georgii Merkulov, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 12:12BOSTrent FredericAssists: Mason Lohrei · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 9:18STLNathan WalkerAssists: Radek Faksa, Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:53STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:10STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P1 13:32BOSGeorgii Merkulov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:08STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P2 19:08BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49BOSTrent Frederic: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kastelic won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Holloway11:40
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc4:15
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:04
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours12:10
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Perunovich9:21
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Parayko19:36
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Schueneman – Kessel5:59
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie9:28
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Merkulov4:58
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau9:55
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Koepke2:35
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei4:02
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Wotherspoon11:24
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Carlo2:34
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).