Sat, Nov 16, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 19 | 111 | 01 | 330 |
| TOR | 110 | 05 | 26 | 11 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:42EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 3:53TORBobby McMannAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 1:51EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 13:08TORMatthew KniesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 14:07TORBobby McMannAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 18:31EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 0:40TORMitch MarnerGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:51EDMEvan Bouchard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:50EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min
- P2 1:32TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:41TORRyan Reaves: Match penalty5 min
- P2 10:19EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P2 11:22EDMMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Draisaitl – Podkolzin4:34
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark8:25
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Skinner – Draisaitl – Ryan2:04
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid5:25
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Stecher8:59
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kulak – Nurse4:12
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:23
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Marner – McMann11:10
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 7–17goals 2–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Dewar2:33
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kampf – Holmberg – Robertson4:36
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Domi – Nylander – Knies7:44
xG 0.16–0.45 (26%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe15:19
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:37
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Rielly9:59
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).