Mon, Nov 18, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 17 | 13 | 01 | 421 |
| SJS | 112 | 211 | 110 | 11 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28DETDylan LarkinAssists: Simon Edvinsson · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:28SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 18:48DETMarco KasperPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:59SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Mario Ferraro, Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 8:11DETMichael RasmussenUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–2
- P2 19:18SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 6:19SJSLuke KuninAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 17:54DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 0:46SJSMacklin CelebriniGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:02DETJeff Petry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:15DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:16SJSJake Walman: Interference2 min
- P1 17:38SJSFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47DETErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:06DETJoseph Veleno: Holding2 min
- P3 16:34SJSTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fischer – Rasmussen10:00
xG 1.45–0.16 (90%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond9:43
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Kane – Tarasenko – Kasper9:17
xG 0.47–0.76 (38%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Compher – Veleno – Berggren10:49
xG 0.11–0.79 (12%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson17:38
xG 0.48–0.12 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Holl – Gustafsson11:10
xG 1.01–0.69 (60%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
- Petry – Chiarot15:54
xG 0.72–1.10 (40%)attempts 7–22goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKunin – Grundstrom – Kostin7:38
xG 0.47–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund11:29
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Smith – Celebrini10:52
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Dellandrea9:56
xG 0.21–1.55 (12%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren13:04
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Ceci – Walman14:40
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Rutta3:39
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).