Wed, Nov 20, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 010 | 016 | 05 | 031 |
| TOR | 17 | 06 | 213 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53TORFraser MintenGWGAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P3 3:01TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 16:41TORPontus HolmbergENAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.59 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:10TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:59TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:59TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:59VGKZach Whitecloud: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22VGKAlexander Holtz: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:24TORConor Timmins: Holding2 min
- P3 1:48VGKZach Whitecloud: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:01VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holmberg won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Barbashev – Burke2:40
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Roy10:33
xG 0.69–0.47 (60%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Pearson – Schwindt – Holtz3:22
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pearson – Eichel – Dorofeyev2:57
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak12:53
xG 0.69–0.43 (61%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud14:13
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Korczak3:13
xG 0.00–0.13 (3%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Holmberg – Grebenkin2:40
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Robertson – Minten – Grebenkin3:47
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – McMann7:41
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Dewar – Steeves5:52
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit12:17
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe13:18
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly15:10
xG 0.46–0.61 (43%)attempts 6–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).