Wed, Nov 20, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 2, Dallas Stars 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 06 | 18 | 223 |
| DAL | 114 | 28 | 29 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:33DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mathew Dumba, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:44SJSMikael GranlundSHAssists: William Eklund · Snap, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 0:56DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 10:56DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Logan Stankoven · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 13:25SJSJake WalmanAssists: Mikael Granlund, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:33DALRoope HintzENAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.69 xG2–4
- P3 19:06DALEvgenii DadonovENAssists: Oskar Bäck · Snap, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:27SJSHenry Thrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:43SJSKlim Kostin: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:29DALMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P1 17:18SJSHenry Thrun: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:22DALMiro Heiskanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:05SJSLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:53DALMason Marchment: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Zetterlund – Eklund9:20
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Dellandrea4:55
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Kunin3:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kunin – Grundstrom – Kostin3:46
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thrun8:53
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren11:24
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Rutta3:34
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston9:04
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Steel – Bäck10:05
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment9:10
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Benn – Bourque – Stankoven7:42
xG 0.19–0.65 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Harley7:45
xG 0.49–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Dumba – Lindell3:41
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley4:19
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).