Thu, Nov 21, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 2, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 214 | 010 | 229 |
| CGY | 120 | 117 | 112 | 349 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:29CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Matt Coronato · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 16:37NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Jacob Trouba, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 16:53NYRWill CuylleAssists: K'Andre Miller, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:35CGYConnor ZaryGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:16NYRIgor Shesterkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:22NYRAdam Edstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:08NYRArtemi Panarin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:29NYRJonny Brodzinski: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:03CGYBlake Coleman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:44NYRVincent Trocheck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière15:25
xG 0.78–0.74 (52%)attempts 25–18goals 1–0
- Vesey – Kakko – Cuylle3:01
xG 0.06–0.24 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Carrick – Vesey – Edstrom5:01
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad10:59
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fox – Miller15:27
xG 0.73–0.78 (48%)attempts 21–21goals 1–1
- Jones – Schneider12:31
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Trouba – Lindgren13:43
xG 0.42–0.98 (30%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Sharangovich – Coronato11:21
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Coleman – Huberdeau – Zary11:43
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Rooney8:21
xG 0.28–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko8:48
xG 0.53–0.52 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl16:54
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 21–19goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal9:54
xG 0.81–0.29 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Weegar – Miromanov14:52
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).