Fri, Nov 22, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 112 | 213 | 15 | 430 |
| PIT | 08 | 05 | 15 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22WPGNino NiederreiterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 4:53WPGVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 19:01WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 5:49PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 18:49WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.80 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:44WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:47PITJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min
- P2 18:45PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:38PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:38PITSidney Crosby: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:38WPGKyle Connor: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:29WPGAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:19WPGCole Perfetti: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vilardi won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:37
xG 0.49–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari7:02
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:49
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:36
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk14:38
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:18
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Miller – Fleury10:39
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Puljujarvi – Poulin – O'Connor8:35
xG 0.24–0.27 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Bunting – Beauvillier4:29
xG 0.01–0.06 (9%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Beauvillier4:09
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Ponomarev9:01
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Grzelcyk4:20
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Shea2:43
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:04
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).