Mon, Nov 25, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Detroit Red Wings 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 07 | 39 | 421 |
| NYI | 17 | 19 | 013 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:25DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Andrew Copp, Christian Fischer · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:42NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson, Isaiah George · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 11:20DETDylan LarkinAssists: Justin Holl, Albert Johansson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 13:53DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:57DETSimon EdvinssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:03DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:15NYIKyle MacLean: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:49DETSimon Edvinsson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:26NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:36NYIGrant Hutton: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:33DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:10NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10DETBen Chiarot: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:10DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Compher – DeBrincat7:35
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Veleno – Berggren – Kasper5:54
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Larkin – Raymond10:52
xG 0.72–0.70 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- DeBrincat – Berggren – Kasper2:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Johansson11:13
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson14:41
xG 0.76–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Petry – Chiarot13:50
xG 0.37–0.72 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Horvat11:00
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov10:14
xG 0.61–0.55 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Martin – Wahlstrom – MacLean6:27
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom8:42
xG 0.08–0.72 (10%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Dobson13:35
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
- Cholowski – Hutton8:56
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pulock – George16:28
xG 0.62–1.50 (29%)attempts 13–26goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).