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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 26, 2024·TD Garden, Boston

Vancouver Canucks 2, Boston Bruins 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN031616215
BOS09013011033

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:53VANJake DeBruskPPGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P3 19:47VANConor GarlandENAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 4:05BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 5:53BOSMorgan Geekie: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  3. P2 13:50VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
  4. P3 5:53VANDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 10:15VANBrock Boeser: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Lindholm
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANBOS
15Shots on goal33
1.4Expected goals3.2
31Shot attempts73
25Faceoffs won36
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
30Hits29
26Blocked shots11
16Giveaways12
2Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. Blueger – Heinen – Garland2:59

    xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  2. Hoglander – Räty – Bains5:14

    xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Blueger – Heinen – Boeser9:28

    xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0

  4. Joshua – Garland – Suter8:16

    xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Juulsen – Hughes2:19

    xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  2. Myers – Hronek2:25

    xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

  3. Hronek – Hughes15:09

    xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestKastelic – Koepke – Beecher5:30

    xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0

  2. Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:42

    xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–1goals 0–0

  3. Coyle – Frederic – McLaughlin5:45

    xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  4. Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau8:54

    xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcAvoy – Lohrei15:02

    xG 0.88–0.01 (99%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0

  2. Zadorov – Peeke14:24

    xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0

  3. Carlo – Wotherspoon14:06

    xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.2 xGVAN 1.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1170 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.83 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).