Wed, Nov 27, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 423 |
| CBJ | 19 | 16 | 19 | 00 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:08CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Zach Werenski, Zachary Aston-Reese · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 13:00MTLJuraj SlafkovskýUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:27CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 6:34MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 8:24MTLEmil HeinemanAssists: Jake Evans, Joel Armia · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 12:22CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Damon Severson, Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 0:44MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.35 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:32CBJSean Kuraly: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:57MTLKaiden Guhle: Interference2 min
- P2 5:57CBJSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:15CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:15CBJZach Werenski: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:15MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:25MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:30MTLJustin Barron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Heineman9:29
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský8:31
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Newhook13:18
xG 0.80–0.76 (51%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Anderson – Dach – Roy8:19
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson8:22
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson5:12
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson2:21
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestOlivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese13:23
xG 0.88–0.57 (61%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Chinakhov – Johnson – Fantilli11:07
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov11:43
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Labanc3:41
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro14:35
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Severson – Werenski2:10
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Harris – Christiansen7:56
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).