Fri, Nov 29, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 19 | 26 | 11 | 422 |
| BUF | 17 | 07 | 218 | 02 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:33BUFBowen ByramAssists: Zach Benson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 18:12VANJake DeBruskAssists: Pius Suter, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 5:15VANConor GarlandPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 9:00VANPius SuterAssists: Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 13:18BUFDylan CozensAssists: Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 14:57BUFAlex TuchAssists: Dylan Cozens, Zach Benson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 3:59VANConor GarlandGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:29VANErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:14VANKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41BUFJiri Kulich: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:06VANVincent Desharnais: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:09BUFOwen Power: Interference2 min
- P3 1:05VANElias Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:23BUFDylan Cozens: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23BUFDylan Cozens: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:46VANTeddy Blueger: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson4:51
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Sherwood – Hoglander – Räty2:08
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – Hoglander – Räty3:01
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Sherwood3:36
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes13:28
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Soucy – Juulsen9:10
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Brannstrom10:06
xG 0.00–0.45 (1%)attempts 5–15goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka7:01
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Benson2:56
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 2–0
- Krebs – Cozens – Benson6:30
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Krebs2:06
xG 0.01–0.01 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram15:55
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power11:09
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Clifton – Bryson7:11
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).