Fri, Nov 29, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 4, Washington Capitals 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 38 | 03 | 00 | 424 |
| WSH | 212 | 05 | 28 | 11 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 4:50WSHNic DowdAssists: Ivan Miroshnichenko, Brandon Duhaime · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 12:10WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Connor McMichael, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 1:15NYIAnders LeeAssists: Noah Dobson, Isaiah George · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:28NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Bo Horvat, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 18:09NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Dennis Cholowski, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 1:20WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 7:24WSHTom WilsonAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:20WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Snap, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:28NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 13:08WSHDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:36WSHRasmus Sandin: Interference2 min
- P1 18:09NYIPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:05NYIAlexander Romanov: Interference2 min
- P3 0:05NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:10WSHNic Dowd: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Holmstrom12:02
xG 0.73–0.50 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 3–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov9:45
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Martin – Fasching – MacLean8:07
xG 0.02–0.14 (15%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Wahlstrom6:20
xG 0.09–0.48 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov11:41
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dobson – George11:44
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
- Dobson – Romanov5:14
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Duhaime – Miroshnichenko3:55
xG 0.38–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Protas4:34
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dubois – Duhaime – Miroshnichenko2:26
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael6:35
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin4:47
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun7:59
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry9:00
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).