Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 112 | 210 | 432 |
| COL | 110 | 07 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02COLNikolai KovalenkoPPAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 11:48EDMKasperi KapanenAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 13:48EDMVasily PodkolzinGWGAssists: Troy Stecher, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 3:56EDMBrett KulakAssists: Ty Emberson, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 18:28EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Adam Henrique, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:27EDMMattias Janmark: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 2:28COLValeri Nichushkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:59EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:14EDMCorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:38COLNikolai Kovalenko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:59EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:35EDMMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:35COLChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:17EDMConnor Brown: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00EDMAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLJohn Ludvig: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Draisaitl – Podkolzin7:27
xG 0.54–0.00 (99%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen – McDavid9:13
xG 0.79–0.38 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Perry – Ryan – Caggiula3:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Janmark6:46
xG 0.17–0.74 (18%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Stecher11:01
xG 1.03–0.59 (63%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:18
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Kulak – Nurse3:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:57
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- O'Connor – Kiviranta – Ivan4:37
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kelly – Prishchepov2:27
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Mittelstadt – Kovalenko7:39
xG 0.37–0.57 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard2:51
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar11:50
xG 0.67–0.89 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- de Haan – Ludvig10:07
xG 0.32–0.53 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).