Sun, Dec 1, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 313 | 110 | 13 | 532 |
| DET | 111 | 17 | 212 | 01 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:57DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:23VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 1:06VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 6:38DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 17:47VANPius SuterAssists: Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 2:24DETMichael RasmussenPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.34 xG3–3
- P3 4:50DETVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 16:40VANErik BrannstromAssists: Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 4:00VANJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:31VANCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:59DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:31DETJustin Holl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33VANNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:23DETErik Gustafsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:02VANElias Pettersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:24VANNils Hoglander: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 17:03DETAlex DeBrincat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Suter9:29
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson11:42
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Heinen – Räty – Sasson4:56
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Blueger – Sherwood – Hoglander8:02
xG 0.07–0.40 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Brannstrom7:04
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Myers – Hughes15:53
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Soucy – Hughes2:26
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVeleno – Berggren – Kasper3:48
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Berggren – Kasper2:46
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Motte – Compher – DeBrincat3:37
xG 0.08–0.14 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Larkin – Raymond4:32
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holl – Gustafsson10:33
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson12:34
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot15:02
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).