Sun, Dec 1, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 111 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 331 |
| ANA | 211 | 013 | 16 | 04 | 2 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:45ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:36OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 19:54ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Troy Terry, Frank Vatrano · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 0:37OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:37ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Troy Terry, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 5:46OTTNick CousinsAssists: Michael Amadio · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Cutter Gauthier stopped
- 2. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 3. ANA Troy Terry scored
- 4. OTT Josh Norris stopped
- 5. ANA Trevor Zegras scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:00OTTNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37ANAPavel Mintyukov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:54ANAAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:32OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:49ANARadko Gudas: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:58ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:11OTTClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
- P3 7:43OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:43ANAJansen Harkins: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:43OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:43ANAJansen Harkins: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk9:12
xG 0.52–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto10:20
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Gregor – Greig – Ostapchuk5:20
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle10:09
xG 0.20–1.08 (16%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot17:51
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven10:17
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson15:42
xG 0.43–1.33 (24%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry12:45
xG 1.63–0.24 (87%)attempts 24–7goals 2–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Colangelo4:48
xG 0.26–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lundeström – Leason – Gauthier9:11
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Killorn – Zegras – McTavish11:29
xG 0.19–0.71 (21%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLaCombe – Zellweger14:21
xG 1.35–0.43 (76%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson14:17
xG 0.65–0.76 (46%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Gudas – Mintyukov13:22
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).